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Goldata Financial
Dedicated to above average returns in the stock market.
STOCK MARKET COMMENTARY
March 23, 2009
From Elliot
Goldberg, Registered Investment Advisor, Goldata
Financial
Last week, Mr. Market gave his strongest
signal in months that a bottom may have been established at SPY68 (the vigilante-induced
low). The fundamental news last week was unsettling, at best, led by Senator
Charles Grassley(R-Iowa) suggesting that AIG executives commit suicide for
their “sins” as the Japanese do (did). In the “throwing
stones in a glass house” category, perhaps his fate on this earth
should be determined by the havoc in food prices his greedy push for ethanol (corn)
as the answer to our energy needs caused last year. Other news that should
have bothered the market, but didn’t, included American Express’
(AXP) confession of higher than expected delinquencies on their credit cards,
Federal Express’ (FDX) terrible earnings report, protectionist NAFTA
violations by the Administration with Mexico over trucking and their ensuing
retaliation, the introduction of the union’s card check bill and the
punitive tax bill passed in the House to punish the AIG execs. In spite of
these events, markets finished slightly higher, granted trading lower
Thursday and Friday. Adding to my optimism is a broadening out of strength into
two new groups --- techs and retailers, which look to be the sectors that
will lead to the upside. Technically, we set up nicely as the market rallied
from SPY68 (low) to SPY81 (high) before selling off. Some short-term weakness
may appear, but must not violate SPY68 on the downside. However, a trade over
SPY81 would create the bullish technical scenario described last week (higher
“highs” and higher “lows”) that we are looking for.
Positions in gold buoyed managed portfolios as Bernanke’s plan to print
over $1 trillion dollars was announced Thursday and turned gold positive for
the week. Additional positions in tech and retailers were added to managed portfolios as their respective stock prices
crossed their 200-day moving averages. It’s time to get out the
binoculars and watch closely as Q1 earnings reports will arrive in a few
weeks. The market knows that this fundamental data will be terrible so Mr.
Market’s reaction to it will be key. If
subdued and the technicals play out, I believe it
will be time to put the pedal to the metal and managed portfolios will be
positioned ahead of time to take advantage as the move may leave
non-believers behind.
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